Instrument: EURUSD
Trade Type: Long
Timeframe: 4HR
Entry Price: 1.04170
Stop Loss (SL): 1.03917
Take Profit: (TP): N/A
Risk-Reward Ratio: N/A
Outcome: Not Profitable
Entry/Analysis:
After a series of strong bullish moves on EUR/USD over the past few days, I anticipated further upward momentum, particularly as price demonstrated a clean rejection off the 200 EMA on the 4 hour timeframe. This rejection aligned with a slight pullback, providing a compelling entry point as the pair held key support at this level. The 200 EMA served as a dynamic support level, reinforcing the likelihood of continued bullish momentum. I placed my stop loss beneath the wick of the rejection to manage risk while allowing room for natural market fluctuations.
Additionally, ongoing tariff uncertainties in the U.S. introduced potential headwinds for the dollar. Concerns about trade policy disruptions and their impact on economic growth weakened confidence in the greenback, further supporting my bullish bias on the euro. Combining these macroeconomic factors with technical confluence added conviction to the trade setup, increasing the probability of a successful outcome.
Exit/Outcome:
Following execution, the trade initially played out as expected, with price surging away from the 200 EMA in a strong bullish push. This early momentum reinforced my bias, confirming the technical confluences that supported my entry. However, the rally was short-lived. After an initial breakout, bullish pressure faded, and price gradually retraced toward my entry. A shift in sentiment became evident as EUR/USD lost its upward momentum, slipping below the 200 EMA before ultimately stopping me out. The reversal was largely driven by unexpected fundamental developments—ECB interest rate speculation rattled the market, with investors reassessing the euro’s strength. Concerns over a potentially more dovish stance from the European Central Bank led to increased uncertainty, prompting a pullback that erased earlier gains. This event highlighted the delicate balance between technical setups and macroeconomic influences, reinforcing the importance of staying aware of fundamental risks when executing trades.
Psychology:
Despite the unfavourable outcome, my confidence in my trading approach remains unshaken. I executed this trade with discipline, following my plan precisely without second-guessing my analysis. More importantly, I maintained composure and adhered to my risk management rules, resisting the urge to interfere manually when price began retracing. This reinforced my ability to remain objective, ensuring that I trade based on logic rather than emotions. While this trade resulted in a loss, I view it as a valuable learning experience—technical confluence alone isn’t always enough, and fundamental catalysts can shift market sentiment in an instant. However, rather than allowing one outcome to shake my confidence, I recognize that trading is about long-term consistency. Losses are part of the process, and the key to sustained success lies in executing with precision, managing risk effectively, and maintaining psychological resilience. This trade reaffirmed my ability to trust the process, a mindset that will serve me well as I continue to refine and improve my trading approach.
Trade Score:
Execution: 3/3
Psychology: 3/3
Overall Trade: 6/6
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